Opening Day

Today is the day. Opening day. Every team is tied for first place. Every team controls its own destiny. This is the day of the clean slate, in which hope is alive for every player and every fan. Today the world changes.

The most beautiful image ever seen by man

Tonight the Pittsburgh Pirates open the 2007 season in Houston against the Astros. Zach Duke will be on the hill for the Bucs, and he will be opposed by right-hander Roy Oswalt. There has been a countdown in the corner of this website for several months, counting down the days, hours and minutes leading up to that first pitch by Oswalt. We are no longer using days, as our destination is nearly here. The phrase "wait 'til next year" was first uttered in April 2006. It first officially appeared on this site in September. However, those words no longer have any meaning. This year is all that matters. The last time the Pirates were successful, I was eight years old. I turn 23 today. It is time for a change. That change begins right now.

LET'S GO BUCS

Roster updates

The Pirates' roster is becoming more and more clear each day. This is what we know at this point:

C - Ronny Paulino
1B - Adam LaRoche
2B - Freddy Sanchez (Jose Castillo)
3B - Jose Bautista
SS - Jack Wilson
LF - Jason Bay
CF - Chris Duffy
RF - Xavier Nady

SP - Zach Duke
SP - Ian Snell
SP - Tom Gorzelanny
SP - Paul Maholm
SP - Tony Armas Jr.

RP - Salomon Torres
RP - Matt Capps
RP - Damaso Marte
RP - John Grabow (Juan Perez)
RP - Shawn Chacon



That leaves seven open spots. Two will go to relievers, with Dan Kolb, Josh Sharpless, and Jonah Bayliss still in the hunt. I would expect Kolb and Sharpless to prevail, mostly because Bayliss lost some of his spring to an injury. The other five roster spots will make up the Pirates' bench. The only sure thing at this point is Jose Castillo. Other than that, there are many different directions that Jim Tracy could go. Luis Matos, Nate McLouth, Jose Hernandez, Michael Ryan, Ryan Doumit, Don Kelly, Humberto Cota and Brad Eldred all still have a chance. I would like to see Castillo, Matos, McLouth, Doumit and Kelly head north. I don't think Eldred is ready to hit Major League pitching, though he may find his way to Pittsburgh if LaRoche struggles against left-handers early in the season. Doumit should pinch-hit as well as back up catcher, first base and right field, allowing him to play a few times a week. Matos and McLouth should back up in the outfield, with Ryan waiting in Indy should one of those two falter early on. At this point, I would rather see Don Kelly play the role of Jose Hernandez this season. I don't think either are any good; I just like Kelly better. The fact that he is left-handed doesn't hurt either. This is a pretty sad bench.

Outside of Gorzelanny, the starting pitching has been a pleasant surprise this spring. Sean Burnett looks like he is ready to pitch in Pittsburgh again, and I would not be worried if Shane Youman had to make a spot start. Also, Bryan Bullington looked solid during limited action. I was concerned with the lack of starting depth coming into the season. I am feeling much better about that right now. The Pirates should have a few insurance options in the Indianapolis rotation.

NOTES: Juan Perez will likely make the roster out of camp due to John Grabow's injury. Assuming Freddy Sanchez starts the season on the disabled list, Jose Castillo will fill in at second base. Because of this, both Don Kelly and Jose Hernandez might come north at the beginning of April. That is a very scary thought.

ONE WEEK

Jose Bautista

In somewhat of a surprise move, the Pirates have named Jose Bautista as their starting third baseman. This appears to push Jose Castillo to the bench after being the Pirates' starting second baseman the past three years. It is fairly interesting to consider what we might learn from this move. Is Pirates management finally fed up with mediocrity and taking a stand against it, as Jim Tracy claims? Maybe Pat has this decision all figured out. Maybe Freddy Sanchez will not be ready for opening day. Keep your eye on this situation.

Jose Castillo "congratulates" Jose Bautista after having his job stolen

SI

I have recently read some opinons around the blogosphere about the fact that the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts knows less about the Pirates than they seem to think. Most of these opinions are valid, but maybe we should be discussing Sports Illustrated also. I picked up my SI Baseball Preview issue this evening and opened it to the Pirates scouting report. I was expecting some bashing, probably most of it legitimate bashing. I was not expecting some of the ridiculous statements that I found. Here is an excerpt that comes at the conclusion of the article, one that had focused entirely to this point on Adam LaRoche and the Pirates offense:

This will likely be another long year at PNC Park because Pittsburgh doesn't have the pitching to contend. Projected ace Zach Duke allowed 40 more hits than innings pitched last year and finished 10-15; the rest of the rotation is a mess. The addition of LaRoche means the Pirates at least have the offensive firepower now to put up eight runs from time to time, and the Pirates will have to win a bunch of 8-6 games to be playing meaningful games after the All-Star break.

What lineup is this guy looking at? The Pirates offense was pathetic last season and, despite the addition of Adam LaRoche, will likely struggle to score runs in 2007 as well. The only real strength this team has is a young pitching staff that could turn out to be pretty decent. The offense will be the last thing that carries the Pirates to victories this season. The only real chance of the team being competitive is a healthy season and progression from its entire rotation. If I was Jim Tracy, I would march this magazine right into the locker room and show Ian Snell the above quote. Then I would sit back and watch him strike out 25 batters in his next start. Anybody who thinks the Pirates pitching staff is Zach Duke and a bunch of scrubs clearly does not watch much Pirates' baseball. I don't mind bashing the Pirates correctly, but don't just make things up without doing any research at all.

NL Cental

There has been some debate recently on the strength/weakness of the NL Central and the realistic chances of the Pirates winning the division in 2007. I figured this would be a good time to make my predictions for the division this season. I have blatantly stolen an idea from Rob G. (from The Cub Reporter) from a past Roundtable to make my predictions. This is a completely unbiased projection approach; however, there is nothing scientific about it. Without further ado, here you go:

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Houston Astros
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Cincinnati Reds

I think that worked pretty well, though my method is not sophisticated enough to predict final win-loss records. Maybe it is time for the Pirates to "roll the dice."

Adam LaRoche - An Optimistic 2007

This is Part Four of an Optimistic Look at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. Today’s section features Adam LaRoche. Keep in mind that these are not my realistic predictions for these players. This is a best-case scenario, something for the hopeful fan to dream about as we approach the upcoming season.

Adam LaRoche hits a baseball extremely hard.

Adam LaRoche was the most prized acquisition for Dave Littlefield and the Pirates this offseason. He is coming off a career season in which he went .285/.354/.561 with 32 homeruns. LaRoche started slowly in 2006, hitting .251/.325/.479 with 13 homeruns before the All-Star break. However, he was phenomenal in the second half, with a line of .323/.387/.655 and 19 homeruns.

There are a few different theories on what caused this dramatic turn around. One focuses on the fact that he began taking medication for Attention Deficit Disorder, a condition he has struggled with since high school. Even LaRoche himself, who generally prefers to keep his symptoms and play on the field separate, has admitted that he has felt a greater ability to focus at the plate since beginning treatment.

Another belief is that LaRoche simply needed a regular spot in the lineup to become comfortable. He had spent much of his career starting only against right-handed pitchers, mostly because of his anemic numbers against lefties. However, once given the full-time first base job during the 2006 season, he flourished. He improved greatly against left-handers, with a respectable OPS of .797.

Adam LaRoche had his breakout season in 2006, and will look to improve in his first season in Pittsburgh. He will be 27 years old, just entering his prime, and playing in a favorable environment this year. The right field seats at PNC Park are only 320 feet from home plate, and LaRoche seemed to enjoy depositing baseballs into these sections when visiting last season. It is not hard to dream of fly balls off of his bat sailing into the Allegheny River beyond right field. Expect LaRoche to be a major factor in the middle of the Pirates’ lineup in 2007

2007 Statistics: .301/.362/.584

Freddy Sanchez - An Optimistic 2007

This is Part Three of an Optimistic Look at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. Today’s section features Freddy Sanchez. Keep in mind that these are not my realistic predictions for these players. This is a best-case scenario, something for the hopeful fan to dream about as we approach the upcoming season.

Freddy Sanchez does something amazing, as usual.

This one will be fun. Freddy Sanchez, as we all know, had a career season in 2006. He went from a utility infielder in April, to an All-Star in July, to the NL batting champion in October, delivering crucial hits on what seemed like a nightly basis. He posted a line of .344/.378/.473, and also led the league with 53 doubles. He notched his 200th hit on the final day of the season.

Many see the statistics dropping dramatically for Sanchez in 2007. I personally do not expect it to happen, as he is a model of consistency. He has always put up solid numbers in the minor leagues and he did not use a hot stretch to inflate his impressive 2006 stats. Those stats are broken down by month below:

April: .333/.347/.542 .889 OPS
May: .360/.397/.509 .906 OPS
June: .380/.421/.540 .961 OPS
July: .301/.342/.408 .750 OPS
August: .355/.395/.473 .868 OPS
September/October: .327/.351/.402 .753 OPS

You might be able to see where the nickname Steady Freddy comes from. Until Sanchez “slumped” to a .301 average and .750 OPS in July, he was absolutely dominating the league. He quickly responded by hitting .355 with an OPS of .868 in August. Freddy owned left-handed pitchers, with an average of .442. He posted a .386 average with RISP, .421 with RISP and two outs, .364 with men on, and .400 with men on and two outs. I might be going overboard with the splits here, but I can’t get enough of the numbers that Sanchez put up in 2006.

Freddy enters 2007 as a regular for the first time in his career. He will not have to fight for playing time, and he has successfully shed the tag of utility infielder. For the first time, he will have the luxury of relaxing and doing what he does best: spraying line drives all over the outfield. He may still be moved all over the infield on defense, but that did not seem to have an effect on him at the plate in 2006 (I will not bore you with those splits, but I assure you that there is quite a bit of consistency in them). Expect Freddy Sanchez to continue to be a force in the Pirates’ lineup in 2007.

2007 Statistics: .351/.393/.495

Jack Wilson - An Optimistic 2007

This is Part Two of an Optimistic Look at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. Today’s section features Jack Wilson. Keep in mind that these are not my realistic predictions for these players. This is a best-case scenario, something for the hopeful fan to dream about as we approach the upcoming season.

Jack Wilson scores on an inside-the-park homerun on July 2, 2004

Jack Wilson had a breakout season in 2004, hitting .308/.335/.459. In the two seasons since, he has struggled with both injuries and an extreme lack of offensive production. In 2006, he put up another sub-.700 OPS while his excellent defense fell off to slightly above average. He attributed this to the extra weight he put on before the season in an effort to add more strength.

2007 will bring the return of the 2004 Jack Wilson. Jack’s biggest issue at the plate has always been confidence. He was confident in 2004 and hit just about everything because of it. He, along with many Pirates’ players, looks at the second half of 2006 and the addition of Adam LaRoche and truly believes that this team can play with the big boys in 2007. Any addition of confidence will dramatically help Jack Wilson produce at the plate. Don’t forget, this is a guy that had a career minor league line of .318/.375/.450 for an OPS of .825. He is capable of being a decent hitter.

As for Jack’s defense, expect to see it return to Gold Glove caliber this season. He is reportedly down to 185 pounds, or approximately 20 pounds lighter than he began 2006. This will improve his range and bring about the return of Jack Flash.

2007 Statistics: .302/.342/.435

Chris Duffy - An Optimistic 2007

This is Part One of an Optimistic Look at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. Today’s section features Chris Duffy. Keep in mind that these are not my realistic predictions for these players. This is a best-case scenario, something for the hopeful fan to dream about as we approach the upcoming season.

After leaving his feet, Chris Duffy realizes that home plate is surrounded by barbed wire and shards of broken glass

Chris Duffy went for a wild ride in 2006. After a successful 2005 campaign which saw Duffy catch fire in Pittsburgh late in the season, he entered spring training with firm control of the center field job. But he limped out of the gate with a line of .194/.255/.276 before being demoted to AAA in May. He refused the demotion and went home to Arizona as questions arose about his commitment to the game. However, he returned in July and declared himself ready to play. Duffy quickly showed that his focus was back, hitting .349/.415/.509 in Indianapolis before returning to Pittsburgh on August 1. He started slowly but rebounded to go .315/.380/.413 with 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts in his final 45 games.

Chris Duffy has had an unusual Major League career thus far, one that can be broken into three pretty distinct segments. He was red-hot during the last few months of 2005, terrible at the beginning of 2006, and very solid upon his return later in the season. The question is which player is the real Duffy? Everyone knows that he has tremendous speed and he plays defense spectacularly enough to bring up Andy Van Slyke’s name in Pittsburgh. But what will he consistently do at the plate? Remove the first month and a half of 2006, and you have a player who has been very successful at the Major League level. There was clearly something wrong in Duffy’s head during that rough stretch, but he seemed to put it behind him after spending a couple months away from the game. Now he is ready to be a force at the top of the Pirates’ lineup. In 2007, expect to see the player that we saw at the end of 2006. Be ready for the Chris Duffy that consistently gets on base, steals bases, scores runs, and is a spark for a rejuvenated Pirates’ offense.

2007 Statistics: .329/.386/.438 - 58 SB, 6 CS

Wilson - Castillo

Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo celebrate a game-ending double play by making out in June, 2005

Over the weekend, Jack Wilson made the following comments on Jose Castillo's effort or lack thereof:

"I want whoever's going to make this a winning team. Right now, Freddy is my second baseman, in my mind. He's the guy I can trust to go 100 percent and get the job done. Castillo's got to show me something. You're going to see it in spring training. If he's slimmed down and ready to work, he's going to have a good year. But, if it's the other way around, we're going to have some problems."

I think that, as a veteran and leader of the team, this is something that Jack should have taken to Castillo in private and kept out of the media. That being said, I do not have a huge problem with these comments. Castillo arrived to camp last spring overweight and then went on to spend an entire season making mental mistakes in the field and showing a complete lack of focus at the plate. Something tells me that Jack may have already talked to Castillo in the past and nothing came of it. While I do not agree with Ron Cook's statement in this article that Wilson deserves the Dapper Dan award for this comments*, I do believe that this team desperately needs some emotion. There should be some pissed off people in that locker room that are tired of losing, and someone needs to take charge and make sure everyone on the team knows that failure will no longer be accepted. It is true that Jack isn't good enough of a player to call a teammate out for lack of production. But he is one of the more experienced guys on the team and he puts everything he has into helping the Pirates win. I would say that he does have a right to call out a player for a lack of effort and focus.

Jose Castillo drops a throw from Jose Hernandez in May, 2006

*Is this not the most ridiculous thing anyone has ever said?

UPDATE (01/30/2007, 12:30 PM): I assumed in this post that Jack Wilson spoke with Jose Castillo in the past before he brought his feelings to the media. Jack tells me in today's PG that I guessed correctly.

Optimism

Could the Pirates be a surprise team in 2007? Could they reach .500? Could they contend for the wild card? Could they make a run at the NL Central title? Could they be a threat in the postseason? Could they do the unthinkable?

Of course they could. They could do anything. The probability of any of this happening isn't very high, but anything is possible. That is why we keep watching. That is why we go to the Wednesday afternoon game against the Cubs in late August, even though we have to go by ourselves because all of our friends are busy or uninterested. We go because there's the potential of a 3-run 11th and a comeback victory. We don't want to miss something special. We attend every home-opener, because we want to be able to say years later that we were there on the first day of that magical season when our lives changed. The Pirates have lost countless casual fans since that fateful day that Sid Bream destroyed our dreams, but many of us hold on to those same dreams year after year. We can not contain our excitement as we read about Zach Duke throwing off a mound for the first time in Bradenton in February. This could be the year. Our world could completely change beginning on April 2, 2007. What if the stars align and every player on the roster plays to his full potential for the entire season? What if 2006 was not simply a dream season for Freddy Sanchez? What if in reality it was the beginning of a magnificent career? What if Jason Bay keeps getting better? What if the real Adam LaRoche is the player that we saw in the second half of 2006? What if Jose Castillo stops swinging for the fences every time he comes to the plate? Why not?

I am naturally an eternal optimist. I look for the good in life, and I always believe that the Pirates can be successful no matter what the circumstances. Since starting this site last September, I have attempted to be more objective and avoid that unfounded optimism as much as possible. A week or so ago, I was at work daydreaming about the Pirates. I don't know why, but for some reason I began feeling very good about the upcoming season. That's when I decided to do an optimistic look at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates. Look for this in the future. I will probably start with Chris Duffy soon and go right through the lineup, over to the bench, and on to pitching.

There is a certain type of Pirate fan that will be interested in this series. The fan that decides to finally get down to the ballpark for that LaRoche bobblehead in June, then leaves early to salvage what's left of his or her Saturday night will not want to read. This is not for Bob Smizik. This is for the Pirate fan that needs something to hope for. This is for the 12-year-old boy that loves Jack Wilson and constantly begs his parents to take him to PNC Park, despite the fact that he has never known the Pirates to be anything more than a Jay Leno joke. This is for the fan that keeps watching the Bucs even after the Steelers start their preseason schedule. This is for the fan that believed the Pirates could be competitive in 1997 despite a $9 million payroll.

Kevin Polcovich hit .273 for the surprising 1997 Pirates

Let's be honest. It's January 27th and you're reading a mediocre Pirates blog. You're desperate for something positive to dream about.

LaRoche's impact

I promise, this will be the final post on this site regarding the acquisition of Adam LaRoche [my fingers are crossed]. We all know what LaRoche brings to the plate for the Pirates: 32 homeruns and a .915 OPS that was missing from this lineup in 2006, a lineup that boasted a league worst SLG; a dangerous bat that will relieve some of the pressure to produce that is heaped upon Jason Bay and Freddy Sanchez; a left-handed first baseman that fills a huge void for this team. But I've been thinking that maybe there is something more that he provides.

The excitement among Pirates' players and management immediately following the Gonzo-LaRoche trade seemed almost silly. This team seems to believe that Adam LaRoche is the Pirates' savior, and he has arrived to lead them from 67 to 90+ wins. Anybody familiar with statistics knows that this simply isn't true. The best players in the league add less than 10 wins a season to their team's total. But is all this excitement a bad thing?

Last season the Bucs were 30-60 before the All-Star break, 37-35 afterwards. Why the dramatic turnaround? They did not suddenly find their swings and start piling up runs. The Pirates scored 411 runs and allowed 474 runs before the All-Star break, while scoring 280 and allowing 323 afterwards. Some will argue that the team was simply luckier in the second half. I can see where that comes from. I remember several instances early in the season where a ridiculous bounce went against the Pirates, and possibly cost them the game. But I think there was more to it.

On June 19, 2006, the Pirates hosted the Diamondbacks for an afternoon make-up of a game rained out earlier in the season. I attended this game with a friend, and our day was going perfectly as the game entered the later stages. The Pirates had rallied from a 4-0 deficit and the bottom of the 9th inning began with the score tied 4-4. The table was set for a walk-off victory. Back-to-back singles and an intentional walk seemed to make that victory inevitable. Jeromy Burnitz stepped in with the bases loaded, nobody out, and the winning run at third. He struck out. No harm done, it was pretty much expected. Besides, Freddy was coming up, and he always came through. But he chased a pitch in the dirt and went down swinging. Now I was nervous, with the always erratic Jose Castillo at the plate and two outs. He also struck out. I vomited all over the empty seat in front of me (NOTE: Exaggeration). All we needed was a fair ball. All three had chased pitches and struck out. We wasted a leadoff double in the 10th and eventually lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Of all the painful losses that I have witnessed in the past few years, this one probably hurt the most. We were supposed to win this game, but we gave it away. It was a perfect example of why we started 30-60 in 2006.

So why did the Pirates improve to slightly above .500 ball after the break. The answer is that the players loosened up. They were out of contention, relaxed a bit, won a few games, gained some confidence, and won some more. They realized that they belonged in this league. The increase in confidence worked wonders, and suddenly these young guys weren't tightening up in important situations. The players that were a bundle of nerves in June were having fun and beating up on playoff teams in September.

Now I am not saying that a confident Pirates team will run off 90 victories in 2007. But it might make the difference between 75 wins and the sacred number of 82. Maybe the addition of Adam LaRoche is what it will take to make all of 2007 look like post-July 12, 2006. With all of the exuberance coming out of the clubhouse since this deal was made, it seems like this is a Pirates' team that honestly believes it can compete this year. If they go on to the field expecting to win, they are going to play much better and hopefully increase that number in the win column.