LaRoche for Gonzalez - eight months later

Adam LaRoche has rescued his nightmarish season - AP Photo/Morry Gash

Dave Littlefield is not a good general manager. This is unfortunate for the city of Pittsburgh, as he has been the Pirates' general manager for over six years. Over that period, he has made bad decision after bad decision, keeping the team near the bottom of Major League Baseball's franchise hierarchy. Because of this, he is constantly blasted by local media and fans. However, in January, he did make a rare intelligent deal. Closer Mike Gonzalez and minor league shortstop Brent Lillibridge were sent to Atlanta for first baseman Adam LaRoche and minor league outfielder Jamie Romak.

As most people know, LaRoche started the season in a terrible slump. At the end of April, he was hitting just .133/.255/.265. As one might expect, the fan base was in an outrage. Gonzalez's ERA was 1.74, and it seemed that Littlefield had blown it again. But the season is 162 games long, and much has changed since April.

Gonzalaez was even better in May, but his success did not last long. By the end of the month, his season was over due to Tommy John surgery. It was known before the trade that Gonzalez was a high-risk acquisition. He missed time due to an arm injury in 2006, and his power style of pitching added to the concern. After his horrific April, LaRoche's numbers have steadily risen. Somewhat remarkably, he is currently hitting .267/.342/.455 with 20 home runs. Those are not quite the statistics we were hoping for in January, but they are not as far off as most feared four months ago. LaRoche has been much more valuable to the Pirates than Gonzalez has been to the Braves.

Many felt that the key to this transaction would be the performance of Brent Lillibridge. He was one of the top prospects in the Pirates' minor league system before the trade, and many knowledgeable Atlanta fans found it possible that he could find himself starting at second base for the Braves in 2007. Lillibridge started the season at Double-A Mississippi, and posted an unimpressive line of .275/.355/.387 in 204 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A Richmond, and hit marginally better, at .287/.331/.436 in 321 at-bats. It always hurts to lose a decent prospect, especially considering the sad state of the Pirates' minor league system, but Lillibridge's mediocre stats in 2007 have eased my anxiety. On the other hand, Romak has continued posting strange, Adam Dunn-like numbers. In 363 at-bats combined with Hickory and Lynchburg, both Single-A teams, he hit .256/.383/.496 with 20 home runs, 114 strikeouts and 64 walks. A .256 batting average at that level is far from encouraging, but the patience and power potential makes this 21 year old an intriguing prospect.

In the end, the Pirates got the left-handed power bat they were seeking and some much-needed minor league power. They lost a promising young reliever whose career is up in the air after a serious arm injury and a shortstop who will likely become an average Major League player. As the Pirates approach another losing season, as Dave Littlefield wastes his time trading for veteran past-their-prime pitchers, let us give him some credit for one of the few smart decisions he has made.

Fun with splits and small sample sizes

Freddy Sanchez circles the bases after hitting a grand slam on August 28 - AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Obviously, Freddy Sanchez has been hitting the cover off the ball recently. However, I did not realize just how productive he has actually been. Freddy has hit .353/.410/.602 since the All-Star break, good for the fifth best OPS in the National League over that period (minimum 150 PA). Knowing him to be a high average, low walk, low power style hitter, I was impressed when I saw those numbers. Looking at Sanchez’s second-half statistics, I found myself entering “small sample size mode.”

During the past offseason, I think we all became sick of the numbers “37-35.” Pirate management mentioned the team’s 2006 second-half record during virtually every interview between October and April, consistently neglecting to discuss the 30-60 record the team had before the break. Considering the Pirates, despite their recent surge, are only 20-29 since the break this season, management will need a new positive spin method for the upcoming offseason. I thought I would get a head start and help them out a bit. It is time to take the Pirates’ second half offensive numbers and extend them over 162 games.

Since the All-Star break, a hypothetical lineup (using Maholm hitting ninth) produced the following numbers:

Nate McLouth: .251/.342/.485
Jack Wilson: .312/.370/.464
Freddy Sanchez: .353/.410/.602
Adam LaRoche: .314/.372/.483
Jose Bautista: .261/.353/.470
Xavier Nady: .278/.336/.454
Jason Bay: .253/.322/.416
Ronny Paulino: .273/.322/.432
Paul Maholm: .208/.208/.250

Of course, nobody will mistake that lineup for the 1927 Yankees. But these statistics are much easier to stomach than the team’s overall numbers. In 49 games since the break, the Pirates have scored 253 runs. That pace would give the team 837 runs over 162 games. Entering the above hypothetical lineup into Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis tool, the Pirates would be expected to score 5.152 runs per game. Over 162 games, that would equal 834 runs.* In 2006, 834 runs scored would have left the Pirates tied for seventh in Major League Baseball. That is a respectable ranking.

So what does this all mean? It means that scoring 253 runs and allowing 265 runs after the All-Star break is only marginally more effective than scoring 367 and allowing 427 before it. But we can expect to hear quite a bit of Pirate management citing the “much improved offense” as a reason to expect success in 2008. Unless we are expecting Freddy Sanchez to consistently slug over .600, it will be just another hollow promise.

*This run total does not account for Josh Phelps’ 1.324 second-half OPS coming off the bench.

The bats

The Pirate hitters are having fun - AP Photo/Keith Srakocic

What happened to the Pirates' offense? Through the first four months of the season, the hitting was the largest factor in a season spiraling out of control. However, Pirate bats have caught fire in August. After battering the Phillies over the weekend, the team is hitting .304/.380/.513 as a whole during the month. That leaves them second in Major League Baseball with an .893 OPS. Their 129 runs scored are unmatched by any team. Here are some individual numbers:

• Josh Phelps - .467/.571/.1000, 15 AB
• Jack Wilson - .413/.500/.652, 46 AB
• Freddy Sanchez - .373/.461/.560, 75 AB
• Xavier Nady - .357/.438/.571, 14 AB
• Adam LaRoche - .338/.400/.563, 71 AB
• Nate McLouth - .297/.378/.578, 64 AB
• Ryan Doumit - .300/.378/.525, 40 AB
• Jose Bauista - .269/.383/.478, 67 AB
• Ronny Paulino - .267/.323/.517, 60 AB

I guess it is true that hitting is contagious. The only thing remotely disappointing about that list is the ommision of Jason Bay's name. Bay's .661 OPS for the month is depressing. (By the way, I am convinced he is injured. He looks lost in every aspect of his game, and often is using only his arms when swinging. I don't know if it is his knee or another injury, but something definitely seems wrong with his lower body.)

However, the team's pitching has been lousy in August. While the team has scored the most runs in the month, it has allowed the third most. As always, the Pirates cannot match strong hitting with good pitching during the same period. Because of that, they are still struggling to win games.

Ronny Paulino and his struggles

Ronny Paulino has endured a disappointing second season - AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

There have been many frustrating occurrences in the Pirates’ 2007 season. Key players such as Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke have underperformed. The signing of Tony Armas has been a bust. Drafting Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters was ludicrous. Hanging on to Shawn Chacon, Damaso Marte and Salomon Torres at the trade deadline was likely a mistake. Committing over eight figures to Matt Morris will probably hurt us in 2008. It has been painful to watch the endless parade of Triple-A players (Don Kelly, John Wasdin, Jonah Bayliss, etc) marching through Pittsburgh. However, the most absurd thing we have seen this season has been Ronny Paulino’s unchanging batting stance. By far.

Last season, the most valuable aspect of Paulino’s hitting was his ability to get base hits to right field on pitches away. It was refreshing to see a smart approach while the majority of the team often attempted to pull everything. His front foot stepped very slightly toward third base during his swing, but it did not affect his ability to hit to the opposite field. However, Paulino altered his stance this season. Maybe he expected opposing pitchers to come inside more often, as a scouting report developed on him. He began using a more open stance. The results were disastrous. Paulino continued to step toward third despite the open stance, making it impossible for him to reach the outer half of the plate. Opposing pitchers quickly realized this, and began feeding him a steady diet of pitches away. Paulino could only flail at these pitches, and had no chance to hit the ball with any authority.

Fast forward to August 18. Paulino’s stance and swing have changed very little throughout the season. He has hit better in the past month or so (.278/.340/.474 since July 7), but he still cannot reach the outside corner. Last night, Paulino homered to right-center field. This should be encouraging. However, replays showed that the pitch was right over the heart of the plate. Paulino was forced to go the other way because that is as far as he can reach. Sure, it has been nice to see him produce more as of late. But unless he fixes his swing, this situation will get worse again before it gets any better.

There has been some discussion this season regarding hitting coach Jeff Manto’s performance. The debate is simple. How can you fairly judge a coach when he has little talent to work with? If you can blame him for the fall of players like Bay and LaRoche this season, then you can give him credit for Freddy’s 2006 season and the improved hitting of Doumit this year. Because of this, I prefer not to judge specialized coaches too harshly for team-wide problems. But Manto’s inability to fix Paulino’s stance over 120 games is a disgrace. This alone is enough evidence for him to be fired.

Barry Bonds, in the eyes of a 23 year old Pirate fan

The Barry Bonds debate is just beginning - AP Photo/Richard Drew

As you all know, Barry Bonds passed Hank Aaron last week to become baseball's career home run king. Yesterday, he appeared in Pittsburgh for what could be the final time. Like many others, I have been thinking about him a bit this past week or so.

As is the case for many Pirate fans in their 20's, I have grown up with an extreme dislike for Bonds. I was at my most impressionable age when he played in Pittsburgh, and I was eight years old when he left as a free agent. As time has passed, I have never been able to put my finger on the exact reason for my disdain for Bonds. There are many possibilities. There were the postseason failures at the plate. There was the infamous throw that ended just far enough from home plate to ruin my favorite team. He left the team for more money. He was/is a jerk. And finally, there is the steroid issue.

I have come to forgive him for many of these transgressions. His struggles at the plate in those three playoff series are understandable when you consider a.) the caliber of pitching he faced, and b.) the small sample size. Also, his brilliant performance in the regular season was a huge factor in the success those teams enjoyed. On the Bream/Cabrera play, he made a strong effort to get the out. He got to the ball extremely quickly and immediately fired to the plate. The throw was a bit off the mark, but those things happen. The only thing I still hold against Barry on that play is that he allegedly ignored Andy Van Slyke right before the hit, when Van Slyke motioned for him to play shallow. But, of course, I do not know for sure that actually happened. Finally, I have come to realize that Bonds' departure from the team was inevitable. The Pirates did not want him back, and he was a superstar who left for his appropriate value. I can not judge him for that.

On the other hand, I can not forgive him for his personality. After slowly realizing everything in the previous paragraph, I still despise Bonds because he is an unpleasant person that considers himself to be more important than the rest of the world. But this post is not about my personal dislike for an individual player. I am here to talk about the saddest part of Barry Bonds' career.

Barry Bonds was an amazing player from the start. In his first season in Major League Baseball, the 21 year old Bonds had an OPS+ of 103 in 413 at-bats. The next year, it was 114. By the time he was 25, Bonds had hit 117 home runs, stolen 169 bases and had a career OPS+ of 132. Fast forward to 1998. Bonds finished that season with 403 doubles, 63 triples, 411 home runs, 1,357 walks, 445 stolen bases, a batting line of .290/.411/.556 and an OPS+ of 163. He was one of the best players in the game, and many believed he would be considered one of the greatest ever by the time he was finished.

But that is when this story took a turn for the worst. After the 1998 season, Bonds wanted more. He allegedly began a powerful steroid regimen and went from superstar to superhuman. We all know about the mind-blowing numbers he put up in the years approaching his 40th birthday and beyond.

How would the career of Barry Bonds progressed if allowed to do so in a natural fashion? We will never know. Most likely, he would have gone down as one of the greatest baseball players the world has ever seen. Instead, a career that statistically is in the top five in history will be scrutinized and debated for generations. That is the real tragedy in this story.

Blow it up

Steve Pearce is one of the few prospects currently in the Pirates' system

It was another lousy weekend of Pirate baseball. To be honest, these past three games are a blur in my memory. All I can recall are eight-run innings, crucial Pirate errors and hitters that belong on a Triple-A roster hitting harmless ground balls. But the specifics have been lost in my mind.

It is time to blow up this team. The starting pitching is young and has some promise, so I would not deal any of them. A future built around the arms of Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm and hopefully a renewed Zach Duke is enticing. There is some hope there.

However, the offense is made up of players in their upper 20's, or in other words, their peak years. These are not players that we can look forward to developing into worthwhile talent in the near future. We know what to expect from them by now. The most valuable offensive players in the lineup right now are Jason Bay (28 years old), Adam LaRoche (27), Xavier Nady (28), Freddy Sanchez (29), and Ryan Doumit (26). Removing Doumit, you have a group of established players, all of whom will become much more expensive to keep in the next two years. There are definitely some solid hitters mentioned above. But combined with the likes of Jack Wilson, Ronny Paulino, Nate McLouth, Chris Duffy, and a number of other scrubs, they have led the Pirates to a .310 team OBP and .385 team SLG thus far in 2007. Even a dramatic improvement on those numbers in 2008 would be unlikely to save this team.

Now imagine this. The Pirates deal Salomon Torres, Shawn Chacon and Damaso Marte before tomorrow's trade deadline. They net a couple of solid Double-A/Triple-A position players. Bay and LaRoche finish the year strong. In the offseason, the Bucs deal Nady, Bay, LaRoche and possibly Sanchez. Assuming somebody doesn't screw up those moves, they should result in a large return of good high minors position players. Also, they trade Wilson and hopefully a large portion of his salary to a team with deep pockets. 2008 is a disaster. But in 2009, we start seeing some improvement. The young guys that we received in all of those trades start reaching the Majors. They are joined by the likes of Brian Bixler, Steve Pearce (who was just moved up to Triple-A), Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Jamie Romak and others. The starting pitchers are now in their upper 20's and are much more seasoned. The bullpen may need to be strengthened through some smart free agent signings, but suddenly we have a core group of players with some upside.

The reason this won't happen is simple. 2008 is the team's chance to avoid catching the Phillies for the distinction of longest run of losing seasons in sports history. Rebuilding would assure the team of another season below .500 in 2008. That would be a huge PR hit for the ownership. If we could manage a winning season next year, much of the heat on Nutting and Co. would lighten. Ownership is playing for a winning season by 2009. The problem with that is that even if the team does reach .500, there is little chance of improving on that as we move into 2010. The roster will be getting older, and many players will be lost to free agency after 2009. We will be forced to rebuild anyway, but without any valuable players left to use as trade bait.

I dread the day that the Pirates break the record for consecutive losing seasons. But I am definitely willing to go through those difficult times if there is hope for a contending team in the future. I would hate to waste the next seven years or so simply to avoid the record of futility. The smart thing to do is rebuild.

We are Pirate fans and it is June

The Pirates hit another low point over the weekend, as they were swept by the Angels and fell to 31-44, 12.5 games back in the NL Central. I have often debated with myself as to what type of loss hurts more, the heartbreaking one-run loss or the complete blowout. Well, we were treated to the best of both worlds in this series, losing one game 10-1 and the other two in extra innings. The Bucs have now lost five in a row and are 1-5 on the current road trip. Of course, we are used to this. It seems to happen every June. But it seems as if people are nearing their breaking points this season. The Pirates' current slide has led the majority of people to depression, anger, protest attempts and others are simply assessing the current situation and looking to build a better future. Even Pirate players are letting their frustration show (from the PG):

"I [expletive] hate this," [Ian Snell] said at his stall, his voice rising. "And you can put that in the paper. I [expletive] hate losing. I hate when the team doesn't bring out its full potential. And if they fine me, fine me. I don't care. Because this is getting stupid. We're better than what we're showing."

Ian Snell - AP Photo/Chris Carlson

These are the kinds of statements we should hear coming out of the Pirate locker room on a nightly basis. I think the fans are more frustrated this season because it does not seem as if players even care about winning. It is one thing to watch the Pirates lose. It is something altogether different to watch them lose because Ronny Paulino does not seem interested in any extraneous movement. It is even more frustrating to watch him walk out to home plate night after night, regardless of how he plays. I have said it before, I'll say it again: the Pirates should be pissed off because of all the losing, and they need to play with a chip on their shoulder if there is any chance to right the ship. That kind of attitude is what makes Ian Snell so good.

There was talk of a players-only meeting before Sunday's game, but it did not occur due to the early game. Hopefully, the team used the free time on Monday constructively. Tonight, the Pirates visit the Florida Marlins. Paul Maholm will pitch for the Pirates, and Dontrelle Willis will take the mound for the Marlins. Willis has struggled his past few outings, and had this start pushed back two days due to a tight forearm. We all know what happens when a struggling starter faces the Pirates. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM.

What did we expect?

The Pirates are busy traveling across the country, so we need something to talk about. I figured I would take a look at some Pirates that are playing above expectations in 2007 and some that have been disappointments.

Jose Bautista - AP Photo/Kathy Willens

Pleasant Surprises

• Jose Bautista - Bautista is hitting .282/.360/.448, and has really excelled since being placed in the leadoff spot of the order. When batting first in 2007, Bautista has a line of .326/.408/.535. He attempted to shorten his swing this season in an effort to cut down on his high number of strikeouts. That effort has been successful, with his K% dropping from from 27.5% in 2006 to 16.9% this year. Early in the season, this new approach seemed to rob Bautista of some home run power, but that seems to be returning slowly. After hitting one home run in April and two in May, Bautista already has three in June. He also leads the Pirates with 21 doubles. Overall his defense has been solid, despite some inconsistencies in the past month or so.
• Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny struggled in spring training, and many felt he should be returned to Triple-A to start the season. However, Jim Tracy kept him in Pittsburgh and that decision has paid tremendous dividends. Gorzelanny has gone 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27. His ERA is currently seventh lowest in the National League, and his win total would be much higher if he could receive some additional run support. The Pirates have scored a total of two runs in Gorzelanny's four losses. Late in spring training, Gorzelanny assured the Pittsburgh media that everything would be different when the lights came on for the 2007 regular season. He has backed up his words with his performance this season.
• Ryan Doumit - It could be explained by a small sample size, but Doumit has been one of the Pirates' best hitters in 2007. He only has 128 at-bats due to beginning the season at Triple-A, but he has put up a line of .328/.377/.508 during that time. Despite the fact that his .885 OPS is higher than any Pirate not name Matt Capps, Doumit still has struggled to get on the field for one of the worst offenses in Major League Baseball. I don't know?

Disappointments

• Adam LaRoche - Many Pirate fans saw LaRoche as the Pirates' savior in 2007. His 32 home runs and .915 OPS would be a welcome addition to the Pirates' lineup. Well, it has not quite worked out that way. LaRoche is currently hitting .223/.314/.393. There are reasons for optimism, such as his 31 walks and timely hits (currently .306/.416/.435 with runners in scoring position). Also, LaRoche is known as a slow starter that heats up with the weather. In fact, his 2006 numbers through June 17 were not that far off from his current stats (.243/.330/.480). Nevertheless, his production has been well below expectations and has hurt the Pirates the first few months of the season.
• Zach Duke - Duke was strong in the second half of 2006, and it appeared that he was beyond his pre-2006 All Star break struggles. However, after starting the season well, Duke has been very hittable again in 2007. He is 3-6 with a 5.68 ERA and a WHIP of 1.65 thus far, and his opponent OPS is at a frightening .916. Opposing hitters have seemed very comfortable facing Duke, as his strikeout numbers have gone way down to 2.89 K/9 innings. It has been difficult to diagnose what is wrong with Duke, beyond his lack of overpowering stuff. It is possible that he is tipping his pitches. It is also possible that he has failed to make the necessary adjustments to get Major League hitters out. Whatever the cause, Duke, who as recently as last year was considered the Pirates ace of the future, is likely at a career crossroads.
• Freddy Sanchez - It is a general expectation that a batting champion's numbers will drop dramatically the following season. Regardless, the Pirates were hoping for more from Sanchez in 2007. His line is at .296/.333/.366, marking a drop off of over 150 OPS points from last season. Much of that is a result of his lack of extra-base hits, as last year's Major League doubles leader has only 12 to this point. Freddy has also hurt the team defensively, as his poor range at second base has allowed many extra runners onto the bases. Much of this can be attributed to missing virtually all of spring training and returning without an extended minor league rehab assignment. To be fair, Freddy's play has improved recently, both offensively (.884 OPS in June) and defensively. If Sanchez and LaRoche get hot in the second half of the season, and Nady and Bautista continue to have success, the Pirates could win quite a few games the rest of the way.

That's what we do on this site. We finish with a post with a little delusional optimism.

EDIT (3:45 PM): Here are some links if you are interested in what the individual expectations were before the season started:

Bucs Dugout - Community Projections

ZiPs Projections

Help!

Jim Tracy removes Shawn Chacon and wonders which relievers actually know that there is a game in progress - AP Photo/Kathy Willens

It is official: the Pirates' bullpen is completely in shambles. Salomon Torres has struggled this season, but his trip to the DL leaves only Matt Capps and Damaso Marte as reliable relievers. Capps (2.78 ERA) has been excellent and Marte (1.33) has been solid in his role of LOOGY. The rest of the pen is downright scary. Tony Armas (8.07), Jonah Bayliss (7.16), John Grabow (5.29), Masumi Kuwata (9.00), and Josh Sharpless (12.46) are the remaining relievers on the active roster. I just vomited a little into my lap. When Capps serves his suspension, only Marte (again, a left-handed specialist) will have an ERA under 5.00. Jim Tracy might be forced to allow his starters to throw 175 pitches per game. What other choice will he have? Just look at these numbers. The Pirates are in major trouble.

A few thoughts

Last night I watched the Pirates play baseball for the first time since Randy Johnson beat us last Sunday. It had been a long week of only box scores via my cell phone. But last night my busy schedule lightened slightly and I sat down to do the one thing I love: watch the Pirates run the bases poorly. I'm just kidding. But seriously, they make some stupid mistakes out there.

This past Friday afternoon, I found a bit of free time and started writing. The Bucs were mired in a five-game losing streak, and I wondered whether Tony Clark's grand slam had effectively ended our season. However, I did not have the time to finish that post. With last night's win, the Pirates have won four of five and moved into second place since I first saved that draft. The offense came alive in Cincinnati and the entire team looked pretty solid last night (aside from the previously mentioned baserunning mistakes).

So maybe the season is not over yet. Maybe I am starting a trend of being completely wrong. If you would like another example, on May 13 I made the statement, "Ian Snell is officially the ace of this staff." Since that comment, Snell has gone 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three starts and Tom Gorzelanny is 2-1 with a 1.78 ERA in four starts. After looking at those numbers, I feel compelled to say something: Ronny Paulino will never again be an above average Major League hitter and should be released. Now let us sit back and watch as Paulino sprays line drive after line drive to the gaps.

Attendance

Note: I started this post yesterday, but did not find the time to complete it until now. During that time, several people beat me to the punch, including Dejan in today's Q & A. Check out these other posts, as they make some excellent points that I did not cover. Enjoy the following post, the majority of which was written on Thursday.

In Wednesday's Post-Gazette Q&A, Dejan Kovacevic called out Pirate fans. He could not understand why the attendance for Monday's game was only around 12,000, citing a "really fine pitching matchup" and "an absolutely spectacular night for baseball." In today's Q&A, fans that did not attend that game explained their reasons and Dejan responded. Reading these pieces got me thinking a bit.

Before I start, I think I should make a disclaimer. I totally understand why fans are upset with the Pirates’ ownership and management. This franchise has made absolutely no progress in the past 14 years. Those in charge either can not or will not do what is necessary to field a competitive team. That is very disheartening and frustrating as hell.

But what is the true cause of poor attendance at PNC Park? Many people would say that Pittsburgh is not a baseball town. Others claim that there are passionate fans in the shadows, just waiting for something positive to rally behind. The individuals that support the latter idea often refer to June 2005. The Pirates were on a roll and managed to reach .500 with a route over the Devil Rays. Enthusiasm was rampant, and the atmosphere at PNC Park was electric. Members of the media rationalized that it was the team’s poor performance that was holding back attendance. I believe that there is another reason. Pittsburgh residents often claim that they live in a great sports town. But is this true?

Let us start with the Pirates. I think we can all agree that the number of die-hard Bucco fans has dwindled throughout the years of ineptitude. In today’s Q & A, Dejan discusses the fact that the largest crowds at PNC Park are for promotions, such as bobbleheads and fireworks. These casual fans have been made the target audience by Pirates’ ownership. The pierogi race, the giveaways, Skyblast and other gimmicks are being promoted. It is all about the experience, not the game.

So maybe this just is not a baseball town. The Penguins were selling out the Mellon Arena all season and their future looks bright. But the enthusiasm was not there last year, despite a young franchise that was making progress. It was late in 2006 before “Penguins Fever” began spreading, and suddenly it was “cool” to spend an evening at the Igloo.

That brings us to the Steelers. Pittsburgh is known to be a football town, with a large following throughout the United States as well as the rest of the world. Of course, it is easy to be a Steeler fan. They are consistently one of the most competitive teams in the NFL and their five Super Bowl victories are tied for the most in history. But is “Steeler Nation” really full of die-hard fans? When the team loses, such as in 2006, interest wanes. Not a “14 straight losing season” amount, but it still fades. I was amazed at how quickly the excitement of a Super Bowl victory disappeared last season. My typical Monday conversation starter stayed the same all season, “How about that game?” By week 4, the typical response was, “Oh, I didn’t even watch it.” When the team is eliminated from playoff contention, there are thousands of empty seats at Heinz Field and Three Rivers Stadium before that.

So what is my point? Well part of the point of this post is that the majority of Pittsburgh sports fans are casual fans. They will quickly lose interest unless the team is in a playoff race or has a surplus of exciting young talent. After 14 years of being a laughingstock, these casual fans will need a reason to attend a game, one that is not baseball. My other reason for posting is out of frustration. This frustration comes from watching the PNC Park seats empty as the 8th inning begins. It makes me sick.

As I said at the beginning of this post, I understand that fans are upset with all the losing. Sometimes I start to feel physically ill while watching Pirates baseball. I am aware of the pain that the past 1½ decades has caused. However, I will leave you with an example that speaks volumes about Pirate fans. In 1991, the Pirates had a regular season record of 98-64, tops in Major League Baseball. It was the second consecutive season that the Bucs won the NL East. In Game 6 of the NLCS, the Pirates lost a heartbreaker to the Atlanta Braves, 1-0. Steve Avery tossed eight shutout innings, allowing only three hits. The attendance for this game was 54,508. The loss set up a Game 7 showdown, one of the most exciting occurrences in sports. The attendance for Game 7 was 46,932, well below capacity. The city of Pittsburgh gave up on the Pirates after that demoralizing loss. That is why I sometimes get a bit irritated when people blame the losing for their lack of interest. I understand the point. But will anything change when/if the team starts winning? Do they give out bobbleheads at postseason games? I honestly cannot remember.

The good, the bad and the ugly - Houston edition

The Pirates are off today after sweeping the Astros in Houston to start 2007. Let's take a look at some of their performances during the series.

Good

• Xavier Nady - Nady went 4 for 12 with a double and two homeruns in Houston. His 9th innning homerun on Monday saved the game for the Pirates, and he was most of the offense on Tuesday as well.
• Jose Bautista - Bautista has looked sharp at 3rd base, and he has been hot at the plate as well. He was 6 for 13 with two doubles in the series, and provided most of the team's offense last night. If Nady and Bautista can produce for this team, good things can come about.
• Starting Pitching - Duke, Snell and Gorzelanny each allowed two earned runs, and each kept the Pirates close long enough for the offense to come alive and produce a win. Look for more of this success throughout the season.
• Bullpen - The bullpen was a bit of a question mark entering the season after the departure of closer Mike Gonzalez. However, they allowed only one run in the series and did not walk a batter. Hopefully this unit can continue this success.
• Jack Wilson - Wilson was 6 for 13 in the series, and he looked like the two-hitter that Jim Tracy thinks he is. A decent offensive season from Jack would do wonders for the offense.

Bad

• Chris Duffy - Duffy was 3 for 14 in the series, and was not very exciting on the bases. He did not attempt to steal a base and did not score a run. He is a large part of this offense and will need to produce for the team to have any success.
• Jason Bay - Bay was the hero in the opener, with a game-winning homerun in the 10th inning. However, he has done very little other than that hit. He is 3 for 13, and is hitting the ball on the ground often. That is a clear sign that he is not comfortable at the plate.
• Ronny Paulino - Paulino is just 2 for 14 thus far, and has looked nothing like the hitter that was terrorizing the Grapefruit League recently. Both of his hits have driven in runs, but he will need to reach base more often for this offense to survive.

Ugly

• Adam LaRoche - LaRoche struck out four times in the opener, and was 1 for 12 with 7 K's overall in the series. He has looked bad almost every time at the plate. It's amazing that the Pirates swept the Astros with almost zero production from Duffy, Sanchez, Bay, LaRoche and Paulino. I would expect LaRoche to get more comfortable at the plate as he gets more at-bats. Another series like that, however, may have those that have been here for the past 14 years calling for Dave Littlefield's head.
• Jose Castillo - Castillo was hoping to have a fresh start to this season. However, he has looked awful at the plate, with that same clueless approach that we grew accustomed to seeing in 2006. With Freddy on the DL, this was his chance to earn his way back into the lineup. He has not succeeded.

Gold Gloves

The AL and NL Gold Glove Awards were released this week. Does anybody care? This award is based so much on reputation that it's not even interesting to see who wins. Everybody knows Derek Jeter is going to win no matter how he plays. Everybody knows that Michael Young has no chance of being voted in over Jeter, despite the fact that he is statistically superior to Jeter in every category (as is Jhonny Peralta, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera; that's four out of only nine shortsops that qualified this season) . In fact, let's take a deeper look at some of the Gold Glove winners this season and how their statistics compare with other qualified players at their position.

Let's start with the previously discussed AL shortstop award, the easiest argument to make. Derek Jeter won the AL Gold Glove for shortstop for the third consecutive year (Note: The last time a guy not named Jeter, A-Rod, or Vizquel won this award, the Pirates were in the postseason), despite being below average in fielding percentage, range factor (RF), and zone rating (ZR) (Glossary). Out of nine qualified shortstops in the AL, Jeter ranked 4th in fielding pct. (.975), 9th in RF (4.14), and 7th in ZR (.810). Take away his average fielding percentage, a flawed statistical measure at best, and Jeter was arguably the worst defensive shortstop in the AL this season. Michael Young (ranked 2nd in RF and 2nd in ZR), Jhonny Peralta (1st, 6th), Juan Uribe (3rd, 1st), Miguel Tejada (4th, 4th), Carlos Guillen (7th, 3rd), and Orlando Cabrera (8th, 5th) all were more deserving than Jeter. Or in other words, 2/3 of all qualified shortstops. But then again, one time Jeter caught a pop-up and then went face first into the seats. Plus he won this award last year. So maybe he does deserve it every year until retirement.

Then there's Torii Hunter, who won his sixth straight Gold Glove in 2006. This marks the third consecutive season that the entire AL Gold Glove outfield remained the same. Hunter is an incredible athlete who seems to show up every night on Web Gems, but does that make him the best outfielder in the game, as he is often called? Personally, I think that over half of the great outfield catches we see should be much easier plays than they end up being, but that's another post for another day. Let's take a look at the stats. Out of ten qualified AL centerfielders, Hunter ranks 6th in range factor (2.56) and 7th in zone rating (.870). I would say that Corey Patterson has a beef here (2.94, .926), as does Brian Anderson (2.87, .883). Or how about Carl Crawford (2.24, .878), who had an outstanding RF for a leftfielder. And while we are discussing AL outfielders, Vernon Wells ranked dead last out of AL centerfielders with a RF of 2.34 (and if we want to bring back fielding percentage, he was next to last there too). But he won a Gold Glove for the third straight season. And Andruw Jones over in the NL, who won his 9th straight Gold Glove this season was last among all Major League outfielders with a pathetic ZR of .846.

There are many other 2006 winners that I could vent about here, but I am tired and don't feel like talking about such a stupid award anymore.


Glossary


Qualifications = 2 games per 3 team games

Fielding Percentage = (PO + A) / (PO + A + E)

Range Factor (RF) = (PO + A) / innings

Zone Rating (ZR) = The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.


All statistics provided by ESPN.com